见顶了吗？复盘银行股的 6 轮大行情

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the six major market cycles of the banking sector since 2005, highlighting the current cycle driven by dividends and identifying signs of a potential peak in the market [2]. Group 1: Historical Market Cycles - The first cycle from November 2005 to November 2007 was characterized by a comprehensive bull market in A-shares, driven by liquidity easing and rapid credit expansion, leading to positive banking performance expectations [4]. - The second cycle from January 2009 to July 2009 saw absolute and relative returns for the banking sector, spurred by the four trillion yuan stimulus plan, which initially boosted bank stocks alongside the market before a style switch occurred [6]. - The third cycle from December 2012 to February 2013 featured both absolute and relative returns, as the banking sector rebounded quickly in response to economic stabilization expectations [7]. - The fourth cycle from October 2014 to January 2015 was marked by absolute returns, with some periods of excess returns, as the banking sector had undergone nearly two years of adjustment before the market began to rise again [8]. - The fifth cycle from February 2016 to September 2018 was driven by fundamental recovery, with the banking sector experiencing absolute returns as the economy began to recover [11]. Group 2: Current Market Cycle and Future Outlook - The current cycle, starting from October 2022, has seen both absolute and excess returns, with the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio at 0.49, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on risks and profitability [13]. - The high dividend yield of major banks, exceeding 7.6% at the end of 2022, has been a key catalyst for the current market cycle, with a shift in focus towards risk and dividends among investors [14]. - The trend of increasing allocations to banking stocks by insurance funds, passive funds, and public-private equity has provided additional capital to the sector [15][16][17]. - The anticipated shift in the logic of bank stock appreciation from dividend-driven to return on equity (ROE)-driven by 2025 suggests a transition in market dynamics, with banks showing marginal improvements in ROE and dividend yields [14].