行业透视 | 来访认购去化普跌二成，8月成交回稳压力不小

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a notable decline in both visitor and purchase volumes, leading to expectations of further decreases in transaction scales in August [3][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - In July, new housing supply and demand saw a seasonal decline, with transaction volumes returning to the second-lowest level of the year, and cumulative transactions from January to July shifted from positive to negative year-on-year [3][5]. - Visitor numbers for new projects dropped by approximately 20% month-on-month, with major cities like Beijing, Wuhan, and Zhengzhou experiencing declines close to 30% [5][4]. - The average absorption rate for newly launched properties fell by 11 percentage points to 30%, marking the second-lowest level of the year, particularly in major cities where the rate dropped significantly [6][7]. Group 2: City-Specific Performance - In July, cities like Beijing and Shenzhen saw their absorption rates plummet to 30% and 4% respectively, with the latter reaching a nearly ten-year low [7][8]. - The absorption rates for various cities in July compared to June showed significant declines, with Beijing down 18 percentage points, Shenzhen down 10 percentage points, and Chengdu experiencing a 50 percentage point drop [8][10]. - Some second-tier cities, such as Tianjin and Wuhan, may see slight increases in visitor and purchase interest due to new housing projects with favorable attributes, while older projects struggle to maintain sales [10]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The real estate market is expected to continue cooling, with August transaction volumes projected to decrease by around 15% month-on-month, potentially reaching a new low for the year [10]. - The ongoing decline in visitor and purchase metrics suggests that the absolute transaction volume will remain low, with cumulative year-on-year declines expected to widen to approximately 5% [10].