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【广发宏观文永恒】展望十五五,把握新线索:2025年中期政策环境展望
郭磊宏观茶座·2025-08-07 11:29

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) in China, emphasizing its significance as the concluding year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025) and the need for strategic planning to address complex economic challenges and opportunities ahead [1][15]. Group 1: Development Environment - The political bureau meeting highlights that the development environment for the "15th Five-Year Plan" faces profound and complex changes, with both strategic opportunities and risks coexisting, and an increase in unpredictable factors [2][18]. - Compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing the competitiveness of China's manufacturing supply side while addressing demand-side issues such as insufficient effective demand [2][19]. Group 2: Key Tasks and Goals - The key tasks of the "15th Five-Year Plan" are summarized as "consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts," indicating a continuation and deepening of the previous plan's objectives [3][23]. - The economic growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is yet to be clearly defined, but it is expected to maintain a reasonable growth rate, with potential annual growth rates estimated between 4.8% and 5.0% [4][27]. Group 3: Innovation and Industry Development - "Innovation-driven" development is likely to be a key focus, with an emphasis on integrating technological and industrial innovation to cultivate globally competitive emerging pillar industries [5][35]. - The plan may prioritize sectors such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and marine economy, reflecting a shift towards new quality productivity [6][35]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Balance - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to optimize the supply-demand balance, addressing the discrepancies between actual and nominal growth rates observed during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7][19]. - It will promote the construction of a unified national market and optimize the supply-demand ratio in key industries to achieve dynamic balance [7][19]. Group 5: Investment in Human Capital - The plan emphasizes "investing in people," focusing on improving consumption contributions to growth, addressing demographic challenges, and enhancing social security mechanisms [8][19]. - Policies may include promoting service consumption and addressing youth employment issues, particularly for the 16-24 age group [8][19]. Group 6: Real Estate and Urban Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will shift from expanding urbanization to enhancing the quality of existing urban stock, with a focus on new models of real estate development [9][19]. - It will also prioritize urban infrastructure upgrades, including improvements in waste management and transportation systems [9][19]. Group 7: Reform and Opening Up - The plan is expected to deepen reforms, particularly in state-owned enterprise collaboration with private enterprises, and to optimize the fiscal system to encourage consumption [10][19]. - Expanding institutional openness will be a key direction, enhancing compatibility with external markets amid rising global protectionism [10][19]. Group 8: Strategic Resources and Regional Coordination - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on securing strategic resources and enhancing the resilience of supply chains, particularly in critical industries [11][19]. - Regional coordination will be emphasized, with initiatives aimed at fostering collaboration in technology and industry across different regions [12][19].