美股研究社·2025-08-07 11:58Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of slowdown, particularly in the labor market, prompting expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][4]. Labor Market Weakness - Recent data indicates a rapid deterioration in the U.S. labor market, with potential monthly job growth plummeting from 206,000 in Q1 to just 28,000 in July [2][4]. - The July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, and previous months' data was revised down by 258,000, suggesting a shift from a "moderate slowdown" to a "rapid brake" in employment [4][6]. Economic Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs projects that the U.S. real GDP annual growth rate will only be 1.2% in the first half of 2025, a full percentage point below its estimated potential growth rate [6]. - Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup believe that the potential economic activity growth has slowed below its potential this year, justifying a reduction in policy rates to neutral or lower levels [6]. Federal Reserve's Dovish Shift - The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and the recent dissenting votes at the FOMC meeting indicate a strengthening of dovish sentiment within the Fed, paving the way for quicker easing policies [8]. - Goldman Sachs notes that the dual dissenting votes at the last FOMC meeting mark a significant shift in the internal dynamics of the Fed, potentially leading to earlier and faster rate cuts [8]. Interest Rate Forecasts - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2025, ultimately bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0% to 3.25% [10][13]. - Citigroup's baseline scenario predicts a reduction of the policy rate to 3%, with risks skewed towards even lower rates if economic conditions worsen [13]. Currency Implications - The Fed's policy shift contrasts sharply with other major central banks, which may weaken the dollar as the interest rate differential narrows [17]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the dollar will face downward pressure due to fundamental factors, including a high current account deficit and concerns over U.S. economic governance and data quality [17].