黄金 | 新一轮降息交易有望启动，黄金板块风鹏正举

Industry Overview - In July, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 73,000, falling short of the market expectation of 104,000, with a downward revision of 258,000 for May and June, marking the lowest level since June 2020 [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments in China issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027)" [1] Commentary - A new round of interest rate cuts is expected to begin due to the weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm data and manageable inflation, with the U.S. CPI year-on-year rate at 2.7% in June, aligning with expectations, and core CPI at 2.9%, slightly below expectations. As of August 3, the probability of a rate cut in September reached 80.3% [2][10] - The gold market is anticipated to benefit from the convergence of interest rate cuts and de-dollarization trends, potentially driving gold prices upward. In the first half of 2025, global gold demand was 2,384.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5%. Central bank net purchases of gold in the first half of 2025 totaled 415 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26% [2] - Global gold ETF net inflows reached 397 tons, the highest for the first half of any year since 2020, showing a significant increase compared to the previous year [2] Market Trends - The trend of de-dollarization is becoming evident in the gold ETF market, with a notable decrease in correlation with U.S. real interest rates. The correlation coefficient between SPDR daily gold holdings and ten-year TIPS since early 2025 is only -0.019 [3] - The profitability of global gold mining companies is expected to continue improving, with average pre-tax profit per ounce projected to rise to $1,546 in 2025, a 63% increase from $952 in 2024, assuming a 5% increase in average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) [3] - The "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry" emphasizes the strategic importance of gold as a mineral resource for national industrial and financial security, outlining key areas for resource exploration and development [3][17] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the first half of 2025, total gold supply was 2,423.2 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5%. The supply from mined gold was 1,741.6 tons, showing no growth year-on-year and an 8% decline quarter-on-quarter [11] - Gold demand in the first half of 2025 was 782.1 tons, with jewelry consumption down 18% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter. Investment demand for gold bars and coins increased by 6% year-on-year [11]