Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant recovery in China's rare earth magnet exports in July, with a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 75%, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1][2]. Export Trends - In July, China exported 5,577 tons of rare earth magnets, surpassing the average level of the past three years by 10% [1]. - After a decline in April and May, where exports dropped by 43% and 74% year-on-year respectively, the export volume showed a recovery in June and July, with a year-on-year decrease of 38% in June followed by a 6% increase in July [2]. - Cumulatively, from January to July, the export volume decreased by 15% year-on-year, with a 36% decline from April to July [2]. Domestic Demand and Supply - The domestic demand for rare earth magnets is expected to improve due to the arrival of the procurement peak season and the recovery in exports [2]. - It is estimated that in 2024, rare earth magnet exports will account for approximately 24% of domestic demand [2]. - The supply of rare earths in China is tightening due to a reduction in imports from Myanmar and limited increases in other supply sources [2]. Price Outlook - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China is projected to rise further, currently reported at 624,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 57% increase since the beginning of the year [3]. - The tightening supply-demand balance, coupled with the peak demand season and improved export conditions, is expected to drive prices higher [3]. - A long-term outlook suggests that from 2025 to 2027, the supply-demand dynamics for praseodymium and neodymium will gradually tighten, leading to an increase in price levels [3].

Industry Overview - In July, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 73,000, falling short of the market expectation of 104,000, with a downward revision of 258,000 for May and June, marking the lowest level since June 2020 [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments in China issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027)" [1] Commentary - A new round of interest rate cuts is expected to begin due to the weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm data and manageable inflation, with the U.S. CPI year-on-year rate at 2.7% in June, aligning with expectations, and core CPI at 2.9%, slightly below expectations. As of August 3, the probability of a rate cut in September reached 80.3% [2][10] - The gold market is anticipated to benefit from the convergence of interest rate cuts and de-dollarization trends, potentially driving gold prices upward. In the first half of 2025, global gold demand was 2,384.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5%. Central bank net purchases of gold in the first half of 2025 totaled 415 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26% [2] - Global gold ETF net inflows reached 397 tons, the highest for the first half of any year since 2020, showing a significant increase compared to the previous year [2] Market Trends - The trend of de-dollarization is becoming evident in the gold ETF market, with a notable decrease in correlation with U.S. real interest rates. The correlation coefficient between SPDR daily gold holdings and ten-year TIPS since early 2025 is only -0.019 [3] - The profitability of global gold mining companies is expected to continue improving, with average pre-tax profit per ounce projected to rise to $1,546 in 2025, a 63% increase from $952 in 2024, assuming a 5% increase in average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) [3] - The "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry" emphasizes the strategic importance of gold as a mineral resource for national industrial and financial security, outlining key areas for resource exploration and development [3][17] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the first half of 2025, total gold supply was 2,423.2 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5%. The supply from mined gold was 1,741.6 tons, showing no growth year-on-year and an 8% decline quarter-on-quarter [11] - Gold demand in the first half of 2025 was 782.1 tons, with jewelry consumption down 18% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter. Investment demand for gold bars and coins increased by 6% year-on-year [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic supply and demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is expected to gradually tighten, leading to a moderate price increase in the context of a fragmented global rare earth supply and demand situation [1]. Group 1: Demand - The arrival of the downstream procurement peak season, combined with improved exports, is expected to enhance overall domestic magnetic material demand. The demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron is projected to grow at a CAGR of 25% from 2020 to 2024 and 13% from 2024 to 2027 [2][6]. - By 2027, the demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron is anticipated to account for 68% of the total demand, driven by the rapid development of new energy and energy-saving sectors [7]. - In June, China exported 3,188 tons of magnetic materials, marking a significant month-on-month increase of 157%, which is approximately 70% of the average monthly export volume over the past three years [15]. Group 2: Supply - Domestic rare earth supply is tightening due to a reduction in imports from the U.S. and limited supply increases from other sources. In 2024, domestic mining, Myanmar imports, and U.S. imports are expected to account for 78%, 10%, and 9% of the domestic rare earth supply, respectively [18][19]. - The U.S. MP Materials company announced on April 17 that it would stop exporting rare earth concentrates to China, resulting in zero imports from the U.S. in June [20]. - Myanmar's rare earth imports have rebounded to a three-year high, with 5,600 tons imported in June, but further significant increases are unlikely due to ongoing supply disruptions [21]. Group 3: Outlook - As of July 23, the domestic price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was reported at 496,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 25% increase since the beginning of the year and a 10% increase from the highest point in the first half of the year [25]. - The supply-demand balance for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is projected to gradually tighten from 2025 to 2027, with estimated balances of +6,304 tons, +522 tons, and -1,466 tons, representing 7.6%, 0.6%, and -1.6% of demand, respectively [32].

Core Viewpoint - The limited marginal increase in supply, along with improved expectations for both export and domestic demand, is likely to drive a rebound in domestic rare earth prices. The global rare earth supply landscape is undergoing profound restructuring due to de-globalization, which may lead to a revaluation of domestic rare earth and magnetic material companies, as well as related overseas companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - In 2024, the average prices of rare earth materials such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide and terbium oxide are expected to decline by -26% and -37% respectively, with a gradual stabilization starting in Q2 2024 [2][6]. - The average price of neodymium-iron-boron (50H) is projected to decrease by -23% year-on-year in 2024, with a quarterly price trend showing a slight recovery in subsequent quarters [6][18]. - Domestic demand for rare earth materials is expected to remain strong, with significant growth in sectors such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and variable frequency air conditioners, which are projected to increase by 39%, 14%, and 18% respectively in 2024 [7][18]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of rare earths is becoming increasingly controlled domestically, with a total mining and separation quota of 270,000 tons set for 2024, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase [7][12]. - The global supply chain for rare earths is being reshaped, with countries like the US and EU accelerating local industry chain construction to ensure supply chain security and stability [2][82]. - The export of rare earth materials is expected to recover, particularly in the context of the "electrification of everything" trend, which is anticipated to drive demand for rare earth permanent magnets [3][18]. Group 3: Company Performance - Domestic rare earth companies are facing significant profit declines, with a projected 81% drop in net profit for four major upstream rare earth companies in 2024, while downstream permanent magnet companies are expected to see a 54% decline [2][18]. - The performance of US-based MP Materials and Australian Lynas is also declining, with MP Materials expected to report a net profit drop of 369% in 2024, while Lynas anticipates a 75% decrease in net profit [62][75]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of gradual improvement in the financial performance of domestic rare earth and magnetic material companies starting in Q2 2024, as prices stabilize [18][37]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The domestic rare earth industry is characterized by six major trends, including improved supply control capabilities, price discrepancies between domestic and international markets, and ongoing overseas resource layout by companies like Shenghe Resources [89][90]. - The demand for rare earth permanent magnets is being driven by emerging applications in humanoid robots and low-altitude economy sectors, with significant growth expected in these areas [95][97]. - Research and development of heavy rare earth-free permanent magnet materials are accelerating, with companies achieving stable production of high-performance magnets without heavy rare earth elements [99][105].

Industry Overview - The Congolese Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS) announced on June 21 that it will extend the cobalt export ban for three months due to sufficient cobalt inventory in the market [1][23] - The decision will apply to all sources of cobalt ore in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [23] Price Movement - Since the cobalt export ban was implemented in February, cobalt prices have rebounded significantly from historical lows [2][6] - As of June 20, prices for MB cobalt, cobalt intermediates, and domestic metal cobalt were reported at $15 per pound, $11.2 per pound, and 224,000 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 58%, 91%, and 47% respectively since February 24 [2][7] - The extension of the export ban is expected to further reduce domestic cobalt inventory and potentially lead to a second round of price increases [2][23] Supply Dynamics - The DRC is the world's largest cobalt resource country, with 2024 reserves accounting for 55% and production for 76% of global totals [2][8] - The DRC's export ban has significantly impacted global supply, and the country is expected to maintain its dominant position in the cobalt market [8] - Despite high growth in Indonesian nickel-cobalt production, it is insufficient to offset the supply contraction caused by the DRC's export ban [13] Demand Factors - The main consumer of cobalt is the power battery sector, which accounted for 47% of global cobalt demand in 2024 [26] - However, downstream demand remains weak, with production rates for key materials showing mixed results [26] Strategic Intent - The DRC's export ban aims to boost cobalt prices and prevent low-cost outflows of strategic resources, while also enhancing the country's international influence [3][32] - The government is likely to continue seeking measures to control cobalt exports to secure long-term strategic benefits [32][33]

行业动态 行业近况 3月13日晚，Alphamin Resources宣布[1]，已暂停其刚果（金）东部Bisie矿山的运营，目前公司正在撤离 所有采矿作业人员，仅留少量必要人员负责矿山的维护、安全和基本管理。据ITA国际锡协数据[2]，Bisie 矿是全球第三大锡矿，2024年锡精矿产量达1.73万吨，约占全球锡矿供应量的6%。 [1] https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HUHlEyQgT3QT2NryYF3i7A [2]https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HUHlEyQgT3QT2NryYF3i7A [3]https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/y8XwJ7PlaPS7Tk3dnpV8Ag [4]https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/y8XwJ7PlaPS7Tk3dnpV8Ag 锡交易所和国内社会库存较2024年高点大幅去化。我们认为，供应扰动或将推升下游产业链安全库存需 求，从而激化短期供需矛盾。 据iFinD，截至3月13日，LME、SHFE锡库存分别为3500、7082吨，较2024 年高点-57%、-60%，均位于近五年38%分位 ...

摘要 行业近况 3月5日晚，极地黄金发布2024年年报，2024年锑产量1.27万吨，同比-53%。其中2H24锑产量4056吨，同/ 环比-70%/-53%。 评论 我们预计极地黄金2025年锑供应或将大幅收缩，进一步加剧供应紧张态势。 一是公司已于2024年完成 Olimplada项目中含锑的Vostockny矿坑第四阶段开采，目前正在进行第五阶段的剥离活动，需持续至2026- 2027年。二是2024年底锑存货价值约100万美元，较2023年底2200万美元大幅下降，2024年公司对于锑库 存已大幅消化。三是我们测算2024年极地黄金锑矿产量占全球比例约为10%，在全球锑矿供应刚性背景 下，我们认为其供应大幅收缩或对全球锑行业供需产生较大影响。 内外需共振叠加进口矿收缩，国内锑价创历史新高。 一是家电等领域用阻燃剂正值采购旺季；我们认为新 能源上网电价市场化改革[1]有望推动国内光伏行业今年6月1日前抢装，光伏玻璃日熔量企稳回升。据隆众 石化网，3月6日光伏玻璃日熔量8.68万吨，周环比+6%，较今年2月最低点+8%。二是据海关数据，2024年 12月我国出口氧化锑1571吨，环比+102%。三是内外盘 ...

观点聚焦 理由 我们认为，阿根廷经济改革有望带来营商环境的全面改善，提升当地盐湖的经济效益和开发效率。 一、阿根廷：南美第二大经济体与重要的新兴市场 1.1 宏观经济：走进南美洲第二大经济体 阿根廷位于南美洲南部，是仅次于巴西的南美第二大经济体。 根据中国商务部，阿根廷国土面积为278 万平方公里，东临大西洋，西部以安第斯山脉与智利为界，北部和东部与玻利维亚、巴拉圭、巴西、乌 拉圭接壤。根据阿根廷国家统计和人口普查局2024年7月的结果，阿根廷全国人口为4706万人，其中白 人和印欧混血人种占95%，布宜诺斯艾利斯市人口约289万人，是全国人口最集中的城市。根据世界银 行和阿根廷国家统计局，按当年汇率计算，2023年阿根廷GDP总量为6226亿美元，是南美洲第二大经济 体，2023年阿根廷人均GDP为1.32万美元，在世界银行的经济体收入水平分组中属于中上收入水平。 图表1：阿根廷在南美洲的地理位置 我们于2024年12月初前往阿根廷，进行了为期一周的产业深度调研，对赣锋锂业、紫金矿业在阿根廷的 盐湖项目进行实地考察，主要观点如下： 核心矛盾：经济改革是阿根廷矿业发展的核心变量。 阿根廷总统米莱的经济改革对矿 ...

观点聚焦 理由 秘鲁：宏观环境稳定，社区关系逐步改善 。 秘鲁铜矿资源禀赋优异，索尔币值稳定、经贸政策开放，但社区关系是其主要挑战。本次调研我们观察到当地 中资矿企的国际化管理和ESG融合能力正在显著提升，对改善经营的稳定性有重要意义。 巴西：优异资源禀赋和规模经济带来显著的成本优势。 巴西锂矿 成本具备全球竞争力，我们认为主要来源于不输澳矿的资源禀赋、显著优于非洲的基础设施配套以及与中国相似的低要素成本优势。此外，巴西拥有丰富且 优质的铁矿和桉树资源，铁矿石矿端成本以及阔叶浆现金成本均处于全球低位。 阿根廷：经济改革将是阿根廷矿业发展的核心变量。 我们认为在积极的情 况下经济改革有望带来更低的通胀、更宽松的审批环境、更稳定的税收政策、更少的贸易管制，有望驱动阿根廷盐湖的成本上涨放缓、盈利能力增强、投资 力度加大和开发效率提升。 如何理解中资矿企在南美的国际化？ 相比非洲，南美国家呈现经济发展程度较高、基础设施配套较好、欧美和本土矿企竞争激烈以及"小政府、大社区"的 特征。如果说中资矿企在非洲国际化的本质是在非洲的"中国化"，那么中资矿企在南美国际化的本质则是在南美的"本土化"，这需要更高阶的国际化能力。 一 ...

以下文章来源于中金点睛 ，作者张家铭齐丁陈彦 中金点睛 . 图文并茂讲解中金深度研究报告 中金研究 我们看好铀价长期上行的趋势性机会，短期催化剂的兑现有望进一步加速铀价上涨。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 天然铀价格在年初冲高后持续了半年有余的震荡行情，这使市场对于铀价走势存在广泛的疑虑和分歧。本篇报告我们主要聚焦三大问题，对市场关注的主 要问题进行研究和解答： 一是历史，即如何理解过去的铀价走势？ 我们对历史上的铀价走势进行复盘，认为铀价走势主要取决于供需两侧以及金融机构和实物库存等主要影响因 素。回顾过去二十年，铀价经历了2005-2007年实物供需与金融属性共振的历史性上涨，最高达到138美元/磅，之后经历金融危机、福岛核事故等事件冲 击后趋势性回落。2016年开始，全球核电复苏与铀矿供给出清带动铀价温和上涨，直到2023年8月，尼日尔铀加工厂停产、主要铀矿商产量不及预期、美 国浓缩铀的进口禁令共同推动铀价的加速上涨。 二是未来，为什么我们看好铀价长期上行？ 核心逻辑是需求端全球核电复苏带来持续的需求增量，以及供给端铀矿受到供给刚性强和资本开支低的约 束。一是本轮全球核电需求复苏大势所 ...