7月出口的“新主线”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The decline in "export grabbing" to the US and improvement in exports to emerging markets may be due to expectations of transshipment and recovery in domestic demand [3][10][62] Group 1: Export Trends - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.8% [2][9][62] - Exports to the US fell by 21.6%, a decline of 5.6 percentage points, while exports to Latin America and Africa rose significantly [3][10][62] - The export growth to emerging markets, such as Africa (+42.5%) and Latin America (+7.8%), indicates a shift in trade dynamics [3][10][62] Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Changes - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" to the US has declined, particularly in consumer electronics and toys, suggesting a reduction in demand from the US [3][18][62] - The announcement of a 40% tariff on transshipment goods by the US has led to increased demand from ASEAN and Latin American companies for imports from China [4][26][63] - The industrialization of emerging markets, particularly in Africa, has increased the demand for Chinese production materials, contributing to overall export growth [4][29][63] Group 3: Future Outlook - The implementation of the "reciprocal tariff 2.0" may create uncertainty for exports in August, as the necessity for "export grabbing" to emerging markets diminishes [5][32][64] - Despite the decline in port throughput, the high level of processing trade imports in July suggests that the drop in exports may be relatively controllable [5][32][64] Group 4: Import Trends - Imports increased by 4.1% year-on-year in July, driven by a recovery in bulk commodity imports [7][52][66] - Specific commodities such as copper (+18.0%), soybeans (+18.4%), and crude oil (+11.5%) showed significant increases, reflecting a rebound in domestic investment demand [7][53][66]