国泰海通｜纺服：奢侈品行业2025年中报总结

Macro Environment - In Q2 2025, global macroeconomic pressures increased, with the IMF lowering global economic growth forecasts in April. Luxury consumption in North America saw a narrowing decline in April-May, followed by an expanded decline in June [1] - Swiss watch exports to the US accelerated in Q2 2025, while exports to China decreased, and Japan and Europe experienced a decline [1] - The strengthening Euro impacted luxury companies' revenue, while the depreciation of the Renminbi against the Euro and Yen may affect overseas consumption [1] Mid-Year Performance - In Q2 2025, luxury companies' revenues generally fell short of expectations, with profit realization showing divergence [1] - Most companies experienced a slowdown or negative growth in revenue, with a majority seeing a decline in net profit margins [1] - By region, the Americas showed acceleration, while tourism consumption in Europe and Japan was affected by high base effects, and Greater China remained under pressure, although some brands showed signs of recovery [1] - By brand, Miu Miu led with a 40% increase, while Canada Goose saw significant acceleration [1] Growth Drivers Assessment - The impact of European tourism is expected to continue into Q3's peak season, while North America faces high base effects in Q4, leading to ongoing uncertainty for the year [1] - Price increases have been implemented by Hermès, Kering, and Prada in H1 2025, with single-digit growth rates. Some brands plan to expand price ranges by increasing accessory products (LVMH) and lowering entry-level product prices (Prada) [1] - Companies continue to invest in expenses, with a high direct sales ratio, indicating that positive operating leverage remains a key driver for margin improvement [1] Industry Trend Outlook - Brands such as Gucci, BV, Dior, and Miu Miu plan to launch significant new products for the autumn-winter season [1] - It is anticipated that luxury consumer segments may further differentiate, with high-net-worth customers showing strong brand loyalty, while aspirational customers may shift their preferences from brand-driven to product and cultural value-driven [1] - In Q2 2025, Miu Miu topped the Lyst rankings again, with the top five brands remaining consistent with Q1, although there were changes in rankings, and Burberry and Birkenstock entered the top 20 [1] Stock Prices and Valuation - Year-to-date in 2025, most luxury companies have underperformed compared to the major stock indices, with Burberry and Tapestry significantly outperforming (by 20 percentage points and 59 percentage points, respectively) [2] - The consensus forecast for luxury companies in 2025 indicates an expected revenue growth rate of approximately 1.8% and a net profit growth rate of -2.3%, suggesting that operational leverage impacts will persist in the short term [2]