中金2025下半年展望 | 纺织服装珠宝：新消费赛道景气延续，关注龙头品牌底部反转

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about investment opportunities in the outdoor sports and gold jewelry sectors, expecting industry leaders to continue achieving high growth [2][4]. Group 1: Outdoor Sports Industry - The outdoor sports sector benefits from a shift in lifestyle, with increasing consumer demand for outdoor apparel driven by a love for outdoor activities and innovations from leading manufacturers [4][19]. - The demand for functional outdoor clothing is rising, with consumers favoring comfort and performance, leading to a preference for high-tech materials [19][21]. - The market is seeing a trend towards product innovation and category segmentation, with brands focusing on specific outdoor activities to enhance consumer appeal [21][23]. - Companies like Bosideng are expanding their outdoor product lines, with outdoor revenue now accounting for over 30% of their total income [27]. Group 2: Gold Jewelry Industry - The gold jewelry sector is witnessing a rise in brands focusing on product and channel innovation, particularly in the fast-growing fixed-price gold category [27][28]. - Many brands are enhancing their competitiveness through high-end product offerings and innovative designs, integrating traditional cultural elements into their jewelry [27][28]. - The market is seeing a shift towards experiential retail, with brands investing in new store formats to attract consumers and enhance brand perception [33][35]. Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Market Trends - Consumer confidence is expected to continue its steady recovery, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption, with retail sales projected to grow by 5.0% in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. - The apparel sector is showing stable performance, with gold and silver jewelry sales growing at 11.3%, outperforming the overall retail market [7][10]. - The demand for functional and emotional value in consumer products is increasing, indicating a shift towards more diverse and higher-level consumer needs [12][44]. Group 4: Manufacturing and Trade Environment - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from a global production layout and efficiency, allowing leading companies to gain market share despite trade uncertainties [4][39]. - Recent tariff adjustments in the U.S. are alleviating some concerns for textile manufacturers, with a more favorable environment for companies with diversified production bases [40][41]. - The integration of supply chains is anticipated to accelerate, with leading suppliers expected to capture a larger market share due to their ability to manage cost fluctuations and production efficiency [41][45].