中金 | 拐点将至：美国通胀的市场启示

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the recent increase in U.S. tariffs has not yet led to a significant rebound in inflation, but this situation may change in the near future due to several factors that have previously delayed the transmission of tariff impacts on inflation [2][4][14]. Group 1: Factors Delaying Inflation Transmission - Statistical method flaws have led to an underestimation of recent inflation, with seasonal adjustment models failing to accurately reflect the current economic conditions, potentially lowering the inflation readings by about 20 basis points [4][17][24]. - Adjustments in corporate behavior, such as delaying tariff payments and absorbing costs, have also contributed to the lag in inflation transmission [6][30]. - Economic growth slowdown has countered the inflationary pressures from tariffs, particularly affecting service inflation, which has been declining [35][38]. Group 2: Anticipated Inflation Trends - The article predicts that inflation in the U.S. may see an upward turning point in the next 1-2 months, with core CPI expected to rise from a range of 10-20 basis points to 30-40 basis points, potentially exceeding 3% [7][42]. - The anticipated inflation upturn is expected to last for about a year, influenced by both direct and indirect effects of tariffs on consumer prices [8][50][56]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The potential rebound in inflation may complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, creating uncertainty around the timing and extent of future rate cuts [9][69]. - If inflation rises while economic growth remains stable, the Fed may face a dilemma, making it challenging to implement aggressive rate cuts [9][69]. Group 4: Asset Market Implications - A rapid inflation rebound could negatively impact various asset classes, particularly U.S. equities and bonds, while the dollar may benefit in the short term but face medium-term uncertainties [10][11]. - Gold and Chinese assets are expected to show relative resilience, with recommendations to increase allocations in these areas [10][11].