美国流动性是否存在隐忧？（国金宏观钟天）

Core Viewpoint - The current liquidity level in the US remains healthy, but the focus should shift to the effectiveness of monetary policy stimulus, particularly the transmission of interest rate cuts to long-term rates, which is crucial for the recovery of the real economy [2][4][22] Group 1: Liquidity Status - Following the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, there has been no large-scale financial risk exposure in the US, and the stock market has recovered and reached new highs [4] - The US liquidity stock level is healthy, with concerns not stemming from insufficient liquidity but from potential mismatches and increased risk exposure due to further liquidity injections [4][11] - The current excess reserves in the US are approximately $900 billion, significantly higher than the $80 billion level during the 2019 repo market crisis [7] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The effectiveness of interest rate cuts in stimulating the real economy is under scrutiny, as the transmission to long-term rates remains weak, limiting recovery in sectors like manufacturing and real estate [22] - The average duration of assets on bank balance sheets is increasing, raising concerns about interest rate sensitivity and liquidity risks [22][18] - The low supply of non-bond assets, such as commercial loans and residential mortgages, has led banks to allocate more to bond assets, further increasing average duration and interest rate risk [18] Group 3: Structural Changes in Financial System - The proportion of US Treasury securities in banks' loanable assets has increased by nearly 8 percentage points to 53%, primarily due to an increase in held-to-maturity assets [13] - The overall losses in the US banking sector amount to $410 billion, with approximately $260 billion stemming from held-to-maturity assets, which limits banks' credit supply capabilities [17] - The distribution of reserves has become more even, with the largest banks bearing the brunt of the Fed's balance sheet reduction, indicating a more resilient financial system [8][10]