不敌司美格鲁肽！礼来口服新药减重效果不及预期股价暴跌15%

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disappointing results of Eli Lilly's experimental GLP-1 oral weight loss drug, orforglipron, which showed a 12.4% average weight loss in a late-stage clinical trial, significantly better than the placebo group but still lower than the competitor Novo Nordisk's injection drug semaglutide, leading to a sharp decline in Eli Lilly's stock price [5][12]. Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - Eli Lilly's orforglipron demonstrated an average weight loss of 12.4% in the high-dose group over 72 weeks, compared to 0.9% in the placebo group [5][12]. - The trial involved over 3,000 overweight or obese adults without diabetes, with the low-dose group achieving a 7.8% weight loss [12]. - Adverse effects included nausea (33.7%) and vomiting (24%) in the high-dose group, higher than the placebo group [12]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Financial Impact - Following the trial results, Eli Lilly's stock fell nearly 15%, marking its largest single-day drop in 25 years, resulting in a market cap loss of over $100 billion [5][8]. - Analysts noted that the market's reaction may have been excessive, with some expressing confidence in Eli Lilly's ability to capture market share despite the disappointing results [8]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Strategic Plans - Eli Lilly aims to submit a registration application for orforglipron globally and plans to price the drug based on its value, considering economic and healthcare system factors [8][13]. - The company has begun production of orforglipron in advance to avoid supply shortages upon its market entry [13]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that orforglipron could achieve annual sales of $40 billion by 2033 in the obesity and diabetes markets [8].