AppLovin财报超预期股价涨12%，电商业务推迟但2026年预期大幅上调

Core Viewpoint - AppLovin reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings, leading to a nearly 12% increase in stock price, although this is considered moderate given the company's high volatility [1][3][5] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $1.259 billion, a 9% increase from the previous quarter, exceeding Wall Street consensus [3] - Adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 81%, maintaining high profitability levels consistent with expectations [3] - The company’s advertising net revenue was $1.259 billion, reflecting a slight variance of -0.1% from estimates [4] Business Segments - The e-commerce self-serve platform launch has been delayed to H1 2026, which is later than previously anticipated, impacting growth expectations [8][10] - Management provided Q3 revenue guidance of $1.33 billion, indicating a 5% quarter-over-quarter growth, slightly above market expectations but below some investors' forecasts [8] Analyst Outlook - Bank of America raised its 2026 revenue forecast for AppLovin from $8.09 billion to $10.05 billion, driven by the introduction of an e-commerce advertiser referral program and expansion of services for small and medium enterprises [6][10] - Despite the delay in the e-commerce platform, Bank of America maintains a "buy" rating and optimistic long-term outlook for the company [6][10] Market Position and Risks - AppLovin has a high beta coefficient of 3.7, indicating significant volatility compared to the Russell 1000 index [5] - The company aims to become a critical marketing channel similar to Meta and Google, emphasizing its dominance in the mobile gaming advertising market [11][12] - Potential risks include macroeconomic downturns, tightening financial conditions, and policy changes from major platforms like Apple and Google [12]