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关税大棒下,中芯凭何将影响压至1.3%?财报透露关键防线
Wind万得·2025-08-08 06:22

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's Q2 2025 performance is driven by "technology + localization," with a revenue of $4.456 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, outperforming industry growth [4]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $2.209 billion, a 1.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.4%, down 2.1 percentage points [6]. - For the first half of 2025, total revenue was $4.456 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.4%, up 7.6 percentage points [6]. - Capital expenditure for the first half was $3.301 billion, with a cash flow from operations of $1.07 billion and an investment cash flow of -$1.56 billion [6]. - Q3 guidance indicates a revenue increase of 5%-7% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin forecast of 18%-20% [6]. Business Highlights and Strategic Direction - Continued breakthroughs in advanced processes of 28nm and below, with significant revenue growth in analog chips and CIS, the latter increasing by 20% quarter-on-quarter [8]. - 8-inch capacity utilization reached 92.5%, up 2.9 percentage points, with a monthly capacity of 991,000 equivalent wafers [8]. - Domestic clients are accelerating the replacement of overseas shares, particularly in network equipment, with storage controller demand rising alongside domestic storage manufacturers' expansion [8]. - Revenue from automotive electronics accounts for 5%-6%, with a target to increase this to 10%, and a verification cycle of approximately 30 months [8]. - The impact of U.S. tariff policies is expected to affect revenue by only 1.3%, mitigated by customer inventory buffers and localized supply chains [8]. Management Statements - CEO Zhao Haijun indicated that short-term growth in Q3 will be driven by smart home and industrial IoT sectors, while long-term automotive electronics capacity is expected to double by 2026 [8]. - CFO Wu Junfeng stated that product mix optimization could offset 2 percentage points of depreciation pressure on gross margin [8]. Investor Q&A Summary - The growth drivers for analog chips and CIS are primarily from market share gains and accelerated domestic substitution, alongside ongoing capacity shortages [9]. - October orders exceed capacity, with uncertainty in November and December, but the company expects minimal impact [9]. - North American revenue accounts for 12.9%, with proposed 100% tariffs expected to impact total revenue by approximately 1.3% [9]. - Q3 gross margin guidance is achievable by maintaining high capacity utilization (92%-93%) to dilute unit depreciation [9]. - The company has initiated production line construction focused on power management and third-generation semiconductors, with capacity currently tight [10].