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应对低利率:机遇与挑战 | 新刊亮相
清华金融评论·2025-08-08 08:54

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by the ongoing trend of low interest rates in China, emphasizing the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic governance capabilities [3][10][11]. Summary by Sections Low Interest Rate Environment - China's interest rates have been declining due to multiple domestic and international factors, including structural issues like technological stagnation and demographic changes, as well as cyclical factors such as output and inflation gaps [3][10]. - The current low interest rate trend is expected to persist for a considerable period, influenced by both structural and cyclical factors, alongside a global trend of declining interest rates [10][11]. Policy Recommendations - It is essential to implement extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustment policies, focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, drawing lessons from the macroeconomic policies of developed countries post-2008 financial crisis [5][9]. - The relationship between fiscal and monetary policies should be one of mutual support rather than conflict, enhancing policy coordination to improve macroeconomic governance [9][11]. Financial Sector Adaptation - Financial institutions must adapt to the changing economic landscape characterized by low interest rates, which affects the behavior of economic entities, leading to reduced credit demand and a shift towards low-risk assets [6][10]. - There is a need for financial institutions to provide better financial products and services to meet societal financial demands while guiding financial needs effectively [6][11]. Focus Areas for Financial Reform - The article highlights the importance of focusing on five key areas of financial reform: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, to support high-quality economic development [7][12]. - Technological advancement is crucial for improving overall productivity and asset returns, necessitating a collaborative approach among different types of financial institutions to provide comprehensive financial services to technology enterprises and innovative projects [7][12]. Risk Management and Structural Reform - Addressing the challenges posed by low interest rates requires structural reforms to prevent financial risks, emphasizing the need for a robust financial supply-side structural reform [12]. - The article suggests that the financial sector should learn from international experiences to enhance its resilience and adaptability in the face of ongoing interest rate changes [12].