中国人口越来越少，为什么欧洲人口越来越多？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the demographic challenges faced by countries, particularly focusing on China's declining birth rate and the implications of population inertia, while contrasting it with Europe's approach to immigration as a solution to population decline [5][25]. Group 1: Population Trends in China - The average fertility rate in China is 1.3, significantly below the 2.1 needed for population replacement [5]. - China officially entered a phase of negative population growth in 2022, a trend that is expected to continue [9]. - The United Nations projects that China's population decline could exceed 10 million annually by the middle of this century [9]. Group 2: Comparison with East Asia - Countries like South Korea and Japan have already experienced significant population decline, with South Korea having the lowest fertility rate globally [11]. - Projections indicate that even under optimistic scenarios, South Korea's population could drop to less than one-third of its current size in a century [11]. Group 3: Europe's Population Management - Europe has managed to stabilize its population despite declining birth rates through immigration, with over 600,000 people migrating to EU countries in 2023 [15]. - The influx of immigrants, particularly from non-EU countries, has been crucial in offsetting natural population decline in Europe [15]. - The EU's population exceeded 450 million in 2025, marking four consecutive years of growth post-pandemic [14]. Group 4: Population Inertia and Its Implications - Population inertia refers to the delayed response of population numbers to changes in birth rates, where a decline in fertility does not immediately result in a decrease in population [20]. - In East Asia, rapid declines in fertility rates have led to quicker transitions from population growth to decline, while Europe has a longer period of population inertia due to immigration [23][25]. Group 5: Immigration as a Solution - The article emphasizes that immigration is the most effective way to mitigate negative population growth, as seen in Europe's experience [25]. - European countries have established various policies and institutions to manage immigration and support integration, which has proven essential in addressing labor shortages and demographic challenges [28]. Group 6: Challenges of Integration - Despite the benefits of immigration, Europe faces challenges related to social integration and cultural conflicts, particularly with Muslim immigrant populations [37][42]. - The rise of far-right political movements in Europe reflects growing public concern over immigration and its impact on local cultures and economies [39][40]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The article concludes that while immigration has provided a temporary solution to population decline in Europe, the long-term sustainability of this approach is uncertain, especially as global fertility rates continue to decline [44].