锂电金属走势分化：镍钴承压、铜铝重塑、锂价异动

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market fluctuations of key energy metals used in lithium batteries, highlighting the impact of national policies, regional trade tensions, and supply-demand imbalances on market dynamics [2][4][10]. Group 1: Nickel and Cobalt - Nickel prices are primarily influenced by structural oversupply, particularly due to Indonesia's expanding production capacity, with a projected oversupply of 198,000 tons by 2025 [4]. - As of August 8, nickel prices have decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, continuing a bearish trend since late 2022 [4]. - Cobalt prices have risen to around $13 per pound due to supply constraints from Congo's export policies, although high prices are suppressing downstream demand [6][7]. Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - The copper market has been significantly affected by U.S. tariff policies, leading to a dramatic price drop after the exclusion of refined copper from high tariffs [8]. - As of early August, COMEX copper inventories reached 260,000 tons, raising concerns about potential market impacts if these stocks return to the global market [8]. - The aluminum market is also influenced by U.S. tariffs, with major producers facing substantial costs, prompting a reshaping of global trade flows [9]. Group 3: Lithium - The lithium market is experiencing significant volatility due to uncertainties surrounding mining rights in Jiangxi, China, with potential supply disruptions of 7,000 to 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month [10][11]. - Recent auction prices for lithium concentrate have exceeded current market levels, indicating strong cost support for lithium prices [11]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply disturbances, as evidenced by an 11% increase in lithium futures prices in a week [11].