【猫眼娱乐（1896.HK）】业绩受自制影片拖累，关注演出业务进展——2025H1业绩前瞻（付天姿/杨朋沛）

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a revenue increase in the first half of 2025, driven by a recovery in the Chinese film market and an increase in self-produced films, although net profit is projected to decline significantly due to losses from self-produced films and increased investment in performance business [4][5]. Group 1: Revenue Projections - Total revenue for 1H25 is anticipated to reach 2.48 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [4]. - Online entertainment ticketing revenue is projected to be 1.19 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [5]. - Entertainment content service revenue is expected to be 1.19 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [6]. Group 2: Film and Performance Insights - The Chinese film box office for 1H25 is estimated at 29.23 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 22.91%, with total audience attendance reaching 641 million, up 16.89% [5]. - The company has released several films, including "Detective Chinatown 1900" and "Dumpling Queen," with varying box office performances, impacting revenue recognition and profitability [6]. - The performance market has shown moderate growth, particularly in large-scale performances, with ticket revenue during the "May Day" holiday reaching 1.21 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.12% [5]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 1H25 is expected to be 39.2%, a decrease of 14.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to low ROI from self-produced films and increased costs from infrastructure investments in the performance business [7].