40元咖啡接连“败走”中国，谁还买单？

Core Viewpoint - Peet's Coffee, referred to as the "ancestor of Starbucks," is facing significant challenges in the Chinese market, with recent store closures indicating a struggle to maintain its presence and competitiveness [7][8][15]. Industry Dynamics - Peet's Coffee has closed several key locations, including its first store in South China, which was considered a benchmark for its market presence [8][11]. - Despite a reported increase in organic sales and a 23.8% growth in adjusted EBIT for Peet's Coffee in China, the brand is experiencing anxiety over its market position, leading to the introduction of a low-cost sub-brand and new consumption policies [11][14]. - The overall specialty coffee market in China is facing a slowdown, with growth rates dropping from 25% in 2023 to an expected 12% in 2025, contrasting with a global growth forecast of 9.2% [24][30]. Competitive Pressures - The specialty coffee sector is under pressure from both internal cost structures and external price wars, with many brands, including Peet's, Seesaw, and M Stand, experiencing operational challenges and closures [28][21]. - The average consumer price for coffee is declining, with significant drops in both takeaway and in-store purchases, indicating a shift towards more price-sensitive consumer behavior [30][39]. - A growing number of coffee-related businesses are entering the market, increasing competition and market saturation, with a 19.54% year-on-year increase in registered coffee enterprises [29]. Consumer Behavior Shifts - Consumer preferences are shifting towards value for money, with 80% of coffee consumers making decisions based on price, and only 4% willing to pay over 25 yuan for coffee [38]. - The traditional "third space" concept associated with specialty coffee is losing appeal, as younger consumers gravitate towards independent coffee shops and affordable local brands [38][42]. - The average consumer's perception of coffee is evolving into a daily necessity, leading to a decline in the average transaction value for both delivery and in-store purchases [30][39]. Future Outlook - The specialty coffee market is expected to undergo a significant transformation, requiring brands to adapt to new consumer demands and find a balance between cost control, product innovation, and localization [42]. - Brands like Peet's Coffee are at a crossroads, needing to redefine their positioning to cater to both niche and mainstream markets while overcoming the challenges posed by increased competition and changing consumer preferences [42].