这是高盛顶尖交易员对本周市场的思考

Core Insights - The article discusses the dual impact of significant capital expenditures by tech giants driving cyclical stocks up, while macro uncertainties such as Trump's tariffs and interest rate paths cast a shadow over market prospects [2][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current earnings season has seen an unprecedented volatility in stock prices, with actual price movements on earnings days exceeding implied volatility for the first time in 18 years [2][3] - The market is increasingly sensitive to corporate performance, indicating that both opportunities and risks for individual stocks are amplifying [4][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Trump's tariffs are identified as a major variable affecting future inflation paths, with Goldman Sachs indicating that without tariffs, the actual inflation momentum in the U.S. remains moderate [6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are under scrutiny, with market participants focusing on leading indicators such as unemployment rates in the tech sector to gauge future rate cuts [6] Group 3: Investment Trends - European bank stocks have outperformed U.S. mega-cap tech stocks over the past five years, except for a narrow window around late 2022 [7] - The trend of "de-equitization" in the UK stock market is highlighted, with significant acquisition activity indicating potential investment opportunities regardless of policy outcomes [7] - Retail trading activity remains robust despite economic concerns, suggesting that this trend may persist longer than professional investors anticipate [7]