美国服务业或面临滞胀——全球经济观察第7期【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Global Asset Price Performance - European stock markets lead the gains, with major global stock markets mostly rising this week. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.6%, 0.9%, and 3.9% respectively compared to last week. The significant rise in European indices is attributed to strong financial sector earnings and potential peace talks between Trump and Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - In the bond market, major government bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 4 basis points. Oil prices fell this week, likely due to progress in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, reducing geopolitical risks. The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.4% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Stephen Miran has been nominated as a temporary Federal Reserve governor, succeeding Kugler until January next year. Several Federal Reserve officials have signaled dovish stances, with expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. If Miran's nomination is confirmed after Congress's recess, it may exacerbate divisions within the Fed [4] - The Bank of England has reduced its policy rate from 4.25% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in this cycle. The Bank of Japan expressed concerns about lagging monetary policy in the face of inflation risks [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June, primarily due to a decrease in imports. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8% in July, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity, with rising costs. Key components showed a 1.6 percentage point decline in business activity, and both export and import indices fell below the neutral line [7] - The U.S. is set to impose tariffs on imported semiconductors at approximately 100%, with exemptions for companies like Apple that invest in U.S. manufacturing. Additionally, tariffs on pharmaceuticals may reach up to 250% [7] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1%, indicating resilient consumer spending. Service production also showed positive trends, with a 0.2% month-on-month increase in May [16]