热点思考 | 美国贸易协议中的“虚虚实实” （申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade tensions following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU. It highlights the uncertainty surrounding the execution of these agreements and the ongoing risks of trade conflicts. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6][49] - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9][50] - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, medium tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14][50] Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][16][51] - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a significant increase in annual investment to meet targets, while South Korea's commitment of $350 billion poses similar challenges due to its scale relative to national spending [4][21][51] - The EU's energy procurement goals are ambitious, aiming for $750 billion over three years, which is three times the expected imports in 2024, indicating a significant execution gap [4][26][51] Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to continue leveraging tariffs as a source of revenue and negotiation power, with tariff income reaching $125.6 billion in 2025, 2.3 times that of 2024 [5][32][52] - The uncertainty surrounding the execution of trade agreements suggests that the US may maintain tariff threats as a pressure tactic, particularly in the lead-up to the August 12 deadline for US-China tariff discussions [5][32][52] - The US's approach to tariffs is shifting from a focus on currency manipulation to fiscal control, indicating a long-term strategy of using tariffs as a financial lever rather than solely for trade balance [5][37][40]