申万宏观·周度研究成果（8.2-8.8）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. labor market, highlighting its fragile "tight balance" and the implications for future economic policies, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. Group 1: Hot Topics - The U.S. labor market showed weaker-than-expected employment data for July, with significant downward revisions for May and June, raising concerns about economic strength and the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [12]. - The article emphasizes the paradox of rising inflation expectations amid weak price performance, questioning how supply and demand dynamics will evolve and impact prices [13]. - The "hidden debt accountability" initiative has seen 44 cases reported by the Ministry of Finance since 2022, indicating a shift in how such issues are addressed [15]. Group 2: Monthly Outlook - July's export data showed a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, surpassing the expected 5.8%, while imports rose by 4.1%, also exceeding expectations [19]. - The article notes a significant decline in port freight volumes, reflecting seasonal trends in industrial production and mixed performance in the construction sector [21]. Group 3: Policy Tracking - The Central Political Bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for stable macroeconomic policies, focusing on employment, market stability, and effective use of government bonds to enhance economic resilience [26]. - The article highlights the importance of addressing local government debt risks and preventing new hidden debts, as part of broader efforts to maintain fiscal discipline [26].