特朗普提名米兰，将对货币政策前景、资本市场带来什么影响？｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran by President Trump to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board represents a deep intertwining of monetary policy and political intervention, potentially leading to short-term benefits for risk assets through interest rate cuts, but posing long-term risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve, inflation, and the credibility of the dollar, which may reshape global capital flows [2][18]. Group 1: Nomination and Political Implications - Trump's nomination of Miran is seen as a strategic move to penetrate the Federal Reserve, which is viewed as the global financial power center [4]. - Miran, known as the "chief architect" of Trump's economic strategy, is expected to push for a more dovish monetary policy, which aligns with Trump's criticism of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's high interest rates [5][6]. - The temporary nature of Miran's appointment allows the White House to avoid significant backlash from Congress while enabling him to influence the Fed's internal dynamics [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following Miran's nomination, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged to over 90%, leading to a decline in the dollar index [6]. - The market's sensitivity to policy signals has increased, with potential sell-offs if rate cuts are delayed or insufficient [7]. - The nomination is likely to intensify the existing divisions within the Federal Reserve, particularly between hawkish and dovish members, which could lead to a stalemate in upcoming meetings [6][8]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair is heating up, with Miran's temporary role potentially positioning him as a candidate for a longer-term appointment if he demonstrates effective policy execution [8]. - The future chairperson's selection will directly influence monetary policy, including interest rate decisions and the strength of the dollar, making this a critical event for market participants [9]. - Miran's advocacy for reforms that could undermine the Fed's independence raises concerns about inflation risks and the trust in the dollar, potentially leading to a reconfiguration of global capital flows [10]. Group 4: Sector-specific Impacts - In the stock market, the expectation of interest rate cuts is likely to benefit growth stocks, while sectors reliant on imports may face challenges due to rising tariff costs [12]. - In the bond market, the anticipated rate cuts could lead to lower yields on U.S. Treasuries, although unexpected inflation spikes could trigger sell-offs in long-term bonds [13]. - The foreign exchange market may see the dollar under pressure, with currencies like the euro and yen gaining support, alongside commodities such as gold, which will continue to attract interest as a safe-haven asset [14][15].