【脱水研报】重点关注快递和石化行业在“反内卷”政策下的投资策略

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategies in the express delivery and petrochemical industries under the "anti-involution" policy, highlighting the potential for price recovery and structural opportunities in these sectors [1]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is expected to experience performance elasticity due to price recovery, with the belief that the "anti-involution" policy aligns with optimizing logistics costs, rather than conflicting with it [2]. - The National Postal Administration's commitment to high-quality industry development and the restoration of price disparities is seen as a positive factor, ensuring that low prices can be adjusted above delivery fees to protect workers' rights and coordinate the national e-commerce supply chain [2]. - Predictions indicate a significant range of net profit for companies within the Tongda system for 2025 and 2026, reflecting the potential impact of price adjustments on profitability [3][4]. Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical sector's "anti-involution" opportunities are primarily concentrated in high-demand sub-sectors, where high operating rates indicate better current market conditions [5][6]. - The focus should be on the current economic climate of the industry, with high operating rates suggesting a more favorable environment for growth, while the elimination of outdated capacity can enhance this situation [6]. - Key areas within the petrochemical industry expected to see significant "anti-involution" potential include refining, olefins, and polyester, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in these segments [8][11].