【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】牛市氛围不会轻易消失

Core Viewpoint - The market consensus is gradually shifting towards the initiation of a bull market, but there are significant short-term divergences among investors regarding market conditions and expectations [3][4]. Short-term Market Challenges - The market faces several short-term challenges, including expectations of economic slowdown in Q3 2025 and a policy focus on structural adjustments, which may not support a breakout in indices [2][3]. - The main structural narrative of the bull market has yet to be established, with current high momentum sectors like pharmaceuticals and overseas computing being seen as independent trends rather than the core narrative of the bull market [3][4]. Potential Bull Market Directions - Two potential directions for the bull market structure include: 1. Breakthroughs in domestic technology, particularly in AI and robotics, which could lead to a broader market expansion across infrastructure, hardware, software applications, and business models [3][4]. 2. High global market share manufacturing engaging in anti-involution strategies, which could enhance industry concentration and pricing power [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The bull market atmosphere is expected to persist despite unfavorable macroeconomic conditions in Q3, as the long-term supply-demand dynamics are projected to improve by 2026 [4][5]. - Key factors that could impact the bull market sentiment include significant demand declines around mid-2026 and constraints on China's manufacturing competitiveness [5][6]. Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - Short-term strong sectors include pharmaceuticals and overseas computing, which reflect high growth expectations but may face challenges in maintaining independent performance [7][8]. - The defense and military sector is anticipated to have repeated opportunities before early September, while new consumption sectors may see rotational gains [8][10]. - The Hong Kong stock market is highlighted as a potentially leading market in the bull cycle, with a focus on pricing trends that align with fundamental expectations [8][10].