做资产配置应该如何避免追涨？用科学的模型框架做多元化分散

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the common misconception that asset allocation is synonymous with chasing rising assets, highlighting the cognitive trap that confuses market price phases with allocation logic [4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Theory - The classic Markowitz portfolio optimization theory indicates that asset allocation is directly proportional to expected returns and inversely proportional to volatility [9]. - Historical data is often used to estimate future expected returns and volatility, leading to a "chasing" effect where assets with higher past returns receive higher allocation [10][12]. - The Black-Litterman model and other improved versions of portfolio optimization incorporate subjective investor expectations, yet still exhibit a tendency to chase rising assets due to cognitive biases [13]. Group 2: Behavioral Finance - The concept of "availability bias" in behavioral finance explains why investors tend to chase rising assets, as they rely on easily recalled information rather than comprehensive data [14]. - In the digital age, the prevalence of real-time information and social media amplifies this bias, leading to potentially detrimental investment decisions [14]. Group 3: Avoiding Chasing Behavior - Establishing an objective analysis framework is crucial for independent judgment and contrarian investing, as demonstrated by the analysis of U.S. inflation trends [16][21]. - Recommendations for avoiding chasing behavior include distinguishing between long-term logic and short-term variables, minimizing the pursuit of short-term performance, and diversifying asset allocation to create a richer "return stream" [23][24][25]. - Understanding the difference between style beta and alpha is essential for investors to avoid chasing funds based solely on past performance [28]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article advocates for a simplified investment strategy, such as the "Snowball Three-Part Method," which emphasizes diversification across global asset classes to mitigate volatility and enhance long-term returns [29][30].