国泰海通 · 晨报0811｜宏观、海外策略

Macro Overview - The article highlights a rebound in inflation expectations in the US, with both 5-year and 10-year inflation expectations rising in August, indicating a marginal improvement in investor confidence [2][3] - Major economic indicators show mixed results: initial jobless claims increased, ISM non-manufacturing PMI declined, and durable goods orders fell month-on-month in June [2] - In Europe, the Eurozone investment confidence index turned negative again, while retail sales showed a year-on-year increase in June, and PPI saw a slight rebound [2] Policy Insights - The US labor market is showing signs of slowing down, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy; the European Central Bank is not expected to cut interest rates in the short term; the Bank of Japan is maintaining its current interest rates but may exit its wait-and-see mode by the end of the year [3] Hong Kong Market Liquidity - The article estimates that the total financing scale for IPOs and refinancing in Hong Kong could reach nearly HKD 300 billion this year, with IPO financing expected to be around HKD 1,500 billion [6] - The peak of stock unlocks in Hong Kong occurred in Q2 2025, with a total unlock amount of HKD 444.8 billion, accounting for 50% of the annual total; the pressure for significant reductions in holdings is limited moving forward [7][8] - The article anticipates that net inflows from southbound trading could exceed HKD 1.2 trillion this year, providing a substantial liquidity source for the Hong Kong market [9]