国泰海通｜有色：降息预期强化，流动性行情或再起

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. economic data and policy changes on gold and industrial metal prices, highlighting the potential for price fluctuations due to inflation data and supply disturbances in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Recent weak U.S. economic data has led to increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in gold prices [2]. - The White House's announcement to clarify misinformation regarding gold tariffs has put downward pressure on gold prices, despite initial gains [2]. - Upcoming U.S. inflation data (CPI and PPI) is critical, with market expectations for July CPI at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, which could further influence gold price volatility [2][3]. Group 2: Industrial Metals Analysis - The transition into a seasonal demand phase shows weak current demand but potential marginal improvements in demand expectations, supported by supply disturbances in certain industrial metals [3]. - Domestic policies aimed at expanding demand are showing effects, with July CPI remaining stable and PPI decreasing by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a tightening competitive market [3]. - The nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve may influence previous consensus on tariffs and inflation, potentially enhancing expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support industrial metal prices [3].