【策略】内外利好因素累积，国内市场或将延续强势表现——策略周专题（2025年8月第1期）（张宇生/郭磊）

Core Viewpoint - The domestic market is expected to maintain a strong performance due to the accumulation of favorable internal and external factors, with potential benefits from the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6]. Market Performance - A-shares have shown positive performance this week, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index recording significant gains, while the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices lagged behind [4]. - The market style indicates that small-cap growth and value stocks outperformed, while large-cap and mid-cap growth stocks underperformed [4]. External Factors - The weak U.S. labor market, highlighted by July's non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 and an unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, leading to heightened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [5][6]. - If the Federal Reserve proceeds with the rate cut, it could positively impact Chinese assets, as overseas funds may be reallocated towards domestic markets, which still offer attractive valuations [6]. Internal Factors - Domestic policies remain proactive, with several measures being implemented to support the economy. The basic economic indicators show resilience, such as a 7.2% year-on-year increase in exports in July [6]. - Consumer market recovery is indicated by a turnaround in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose by 0.4% month-on-month in July, following a 0.1% decline in the previous month [6]. Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to reach new highs in the second half of the year, driven by short-term expectations and fundamental improvements. The current market dynamics are shifting from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven [7]. - Key sectors to watch include machinery and electrical equipment for short-term gains, and long-term focuses on consumption, technological independence, and dividend-paying stocks [7].