调停俄乌：特朗普的第三个100天（国金宏观赵宏鹤）

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between the US and Russian leaders marks the formal initiation of peace talks, with expectations for a principled framework, but the path to a comprehensive ceasefire remains long and challenging. The long-term outcome will primarily be determined by military strength, while the short-term may help ease US-China risks [2]. Group 1: Trump's First 200 Days - In the first 100 days, Trump actively sought to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but his approach faced significant controversy, leading to strained relations with traditional European allies and Ukraine [5]. - Trump's isolationist and pro-Russian stance caused considerable upheaval, prompting the EU to initiate an €800 billion "rearmament" plan and increasing distrust towards the US, reflected in the decline of the dollar index from 110 in January to 98 in late April [6]. - During the second 100 days, Trump shifted focus away from mediation efforts after unsuccessful attempts to coordinate talks, instead prioritizing domestic tax cuts and external tariff negotiations [7][10]. Group 2: Recent Developments and Negotiation Landscape - The third 100 days saw Trump return to mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, adjusting his stance to increase military aid to Ukraine while threatening sanctions against Russia and countries purchasing Russian oil [11]. - The summer offensive by Russia achieved limited territorial gains, with an average advance of 488 square kilometers per month from May to July, which is still less than 1% of Ukraine's territory [11]. - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 is anticipated to yield some form of agreement or consensus, differing from previous talks without direct leader involvement [12][13]. Group 3: Assessment of Negotiation Prospects - The meeting is expected to signify the formal start of peace negotiations, with potential for a framework agreement, but achieving a comprehensive ceasefire in the short term remains unlikely due to numerous detailed issues [16]. - The conditions for negotiation have become more pragmatic, with Russia willing to agree to a ceasefire if Ukraine withdraws from Donetsk, although significant political risks remain for Ukraine [14][15]. - The outcome of the negotiations will largely depend on battlefield realities, particularly the situation following the summer offensive, with potential implications for gold and energy prices, as well as US-China relations [16].