国泰海通｜宏观：核心CPI续升：动力是什么

Core Insights - The article highlights the ongoing support of various consumer subsidy policies for durable goods prices, contributing to a sustained increase in core CPI year-on-year, while noting the sluggish recovery in rental and household service prices [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, aligning with seasonal trends, while year-on-year figures remained flat. Core CPI rose to 0.8%, the highest since March 2024 [2]. - Key drivers of core CPI include: 1. Strong price increases in consumer policy-supported sectors, with living goods and services prices rising by 0.8% month-on-month, significantly above the seasonal average of 0.26% [2]. 2. Rising gold prices and a surge in consumer gold purchases led to high growth in other goods and services CPI [2]. 3. Summer travel remains robust, although the growth rate of tourism CPI has slightly decreased compared to 2023 and 2024, indicating potential in the tourism and service consumption markets that requires further policy guidance [2]. 4. Rental and household service CPI saw a modest increase of 0.1% month-on-month, which is below historical averages, indicating limited recovery progress [2]. PPI Analysis - In July, the PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline rate remaining stable. The PPI is showing signs of stabilization, supported by raw material prices due to intensified "anti-involution" policies, although downstream factory prices remain weak due to overcapacity and export competition [3]. - The positive impact of "anti-involution" policies on PPI is expected to be gradual and long-term. Current capacity optimization policies have expanded from traditional industries like coal, steel, and cement to emerging sectors such as automotive, photovoltaics, and batteries, affecting nearly 20% of industry revenue [3].