这一指标再到2万亿，见顶还是新起点？| 周度量化观察

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rose together this week, with A-shares slightly outperforming, reaching a financing balance of nearly 2 trillion, a new high for this round [2] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market fell to 111.2 billion, indicating a significant decline in trading activity [2] - The market showed a divergence in performance, with sectors like defense, non-ferrous metals, and machinery leading gains, while pharmaceuticals, computers, and retail sectors lagged [2][22] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with both government and credit bonds strengthening [2][28] - The expectation for pure bond fund returns is positive, supported by a favorable monetary policy environment due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][28] - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a focus on coupon strategies [7] Commodity Market - Gold prices rose significantly this week, with COMEX gold briefly breaking previous highs, supported by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar [2][8] - The long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, with recommendations to accumulate on dips, although short-term risks of price weakness exist if highs are not sustained [8][33] Overseas Market - U.S. stocks showed a recovery after a decline, with the latest non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][9] - The European stock market rose overall, influenced by geopolitical discussions between U.S. and Russian leaders [3] - The current environment suggests a focus on diversified asset allocation in overseas markets, balancing equity investments across regions and styles [9] Stock Market Performance - The stock market saw significant weekly gains, with the CSI 1000 index and other broad indices showing notable increases [11] - The trading volume in the two markets decreased compared to the previous week, with the CSI 1000 component stocks seeing an increase in trading volume share [14][15] - The volatility of major indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 500 increased, although they remain below their historical averages [19][20] Sector Performance - In the sector performance, defense, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors showed strong weekly gains of +5.93%, +5.78%, and +5.37% respectively [22][24] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical and computer sectors experienced declines, indicating a mixed performance across different industries [22][24]