芯片关税，这个国家风险最大

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry in Malaysia faces significant growth risks due to the impending U.S. tariffs on semiconductor imports, with uncertainty surrounding exemptions impacting the industry's outlook [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Nomura Securities indicates that Malaysia and the Philippines are most vulnerable to the upcoming 232 chip tariffs, with Malaysia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 4.4% and 4% for 2026 [2]. - The U.S. government is expediting the review process for tariffs, with potential announcements as early as August or September, which could affect the semiconductor supply chain [2]. Group 2: Dependency on U.S. Market - Taiwan has the highest dependency on the U.S. semiconductor market, accounting for 2.8% of its GDP, followed by Malaysia at 2.3%, and Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand ranging from 1.3% to 1.4% [3]. - The potential for 100% tariffs could pressure companies to adjust their supply chains, impacting the broader electrical and electronic industry ecosystem, particularly small and medium enterprises [4]. Group 3: Tariff Exemptions and Local Supply Chain - The scope of tariff exemptions remains unclear, with Malaysian semiconductor exports potentially benefiting from 100% tariff exemptions for certain U.S. companies operating locally [4]. - Local suppliers may face challenges in obtaining similar exemptions, which could increase costs and pressure profit margins for assembly and testing facilities in Malaysia [4][5]. Group 4: Long-term Strategic Considerations - Malaysia's best strategy to maintain growth momentum involves strengthening domestic capabilities, diversifying procurement, and seeking stable trade arrangements [4]. - A report estimates that Malaysia's effective tax rate (ETR) on semiconductor exports to the U.S. could be around 24%, raising concerns about the country's competitiveness in the global semiconductor supply chain [5].