美国经济处于什么状态？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is currently in a delicate state, avoiding a hard landing but still facing underlying structural issues that could lead to future instability [2][6][7] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, with initial non-farm employment data showing an increase of approximately 147,000 jobs, although subsequent revisions revealed a significant drop to only 14,000 jobs added [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year in June, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, indicating that consumer income can support spending [2] GDP and Growth Dynamics - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first quarterly decline since 2022, with net exports negatively impacting GDP by approximately 4.6 percentage points [3] - Consumer and private fixed investment grew by 3.0%, suggesting some internal economic support, but growth in durable goods orders and residential investment is slowing [3] Policy Environment - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is projected to increase the budget deficit by $3.3 trillion over ten years, with a stable deficit rate around 6% of GDP, indicating ongoing high fiscal deficits that may support the economy in the short term but pose long-term sustainability risks [4] - The marginal effects of fiscal stimulus may diminish in a context of tight monetary policy [4] Trade Policy Implications - Recent trade barriers, including a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam and a 10% base tariff on nearly all imports starting April 2025, may raise production costs and weaken international competitiveness [5] - Such protectionist measures could lead trade partners to seek alternative markets, potentially exerting downward pressure on U.S. exports [5] Capital Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rebounded quickly after a 15% decline, recovering in just 15 trading days, the fastest in 75 years, driven by expectations of interest rate stabilization and fiscal stimulus [5] - Historical data suggests that similar rebounds typically lead to average gains of 6%, 10.5%, and 16.5% over the next three, six, and twelve months, respectively [5] Structural Challenges - The current economic state resembles a temporarily balanced situation, with underlying structural issues such as productivity growth slowdown, aging population, rising debt burdens, and international trade tensions still present [6][7] - Investors are advised to remain cautious, as superficial data and market rebounds may obscure the true economic resilience [6][7]