研报 | DDR4、LPDDR4供给收敛，2025年下半年恐出现结构性缺货，价格大幅上涨

Core Insights - The DDR4 market is experiencing a persistent supply-demand imbalance and significant price increases in the second half of 2025, driven by strong server orders impacting PC and consumer markets [2][3] - The price of PC DDR4 modules has surpassed that of DDR5, indicating a rare price inversion due to limited supply and a shift towards DDR5 by PC OEMs [3] - Consumer DRAM supply is particularly tight, with contract prices for Consumer DDR4 expected to rise by 85% to 90% in Q3 2025 [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The server market's demand for DDR4 is prioritizing production resources, leading to a decrease in supply for PC applications, resulting in a "price increase, volume decrease" scenario for DDR4 [3] - The LPDDR4X contract prices are projected to increase by 38% to 43% in Q3 2025, driven by supply shortages and competitive bidding among suppliers [5] - The overall demand for DDR4 in AI computing and data processing is becoming a standard in new data centers, further increasing the pressure on supply [3] Group 2: Price Adjustments - The contract prices for various DRAM products are being adjusted significantly, with PC DDR4 expected to rise by 38% to 43% in Q3 2025, and Consumer DDR4 by 85% to 90% [6] - LPDDR5X prices are also expected to rise by 10% to 15%, reflecting a healthier supply-demand balance compared to LPDDR4X [5][6] - The overall trend indicates a shift away from DDR4 in new configurations, as DDR5 adoption increases in the market [3]