40元咖啡接连“败走”中国，谁还买单？

Core Viewpoint - Peet's Coffee, referred to as the "ancestor of Starbucks," is facing significant challenges in the Chinese market, including store closures and increased competition from lower-priced coffee brands [7][8][15]. Industry Trends - Peet's Coffee has closed several key locations in China, including its first store in South China, which was considered a benchmark for its market presence [8][11]. - The brand's expansion has slowed, with new store openings dropping from 98 in 2023 to 51 in 2024, and only 16 in the first half of 2025 [11]. - Despite a reported 23.8% organic growth in adjusted EBIT and a global sales increase of 7.9% to €88.37 billion in 2024, Peet's Coffee is experiencing anxiety over its market position in China [11][12]. Market Challenges - The premium coffee market in China is facing a collective struggle, with brands like Seesaw Coffee also experiencing significant store closures and financial difficulties [15][17]. - The overall growth rate of the premium coffee market in China is projected to decline from 25% in 2023 to 12% in 2025, contrasting with a global growth forecast of 9.2% [24]. - The average consumer price for coffee is decreasing, with the average takeout coffee price dropping from ¥63.8 in 2020 to ¥53.5 in 2023 [30][32]. Competitive Landscape - The coffee market is becoming increasingly saturated, with a 19.54% year-on-year increase in the registration of coffee-related businesses, reaching approximately 26,400 in the first half of 2025 [29]. - Brands like M Stand and %Arabica are also facing challenges, with M Stand experiencing a significant reduction in store openings and closures [21][28]. Consumer Behavior - A shift in consumer preferences is evident, with 80% of coffee consumers making decisions based on price, and only 4% willing to pay over ¥25 for coffee [35]. - The perception of coffee is evolving towards a more everyday necessity, leading to a decline in the appeal of premium coffee brands among younger consumers [39]. Strategic Recommendations - To navigate the current challenges, premium coffee brands need to abandon the "Western superiority complex" and focus on local flavors and cultural narratives to create a unique market position [41][42]. - The industry is undergoing a significant transformation, and brands must find a balance in cost control, product innovation, and localization to meet the changing demands of Chinese consumers [42].