金属周报 | 降息预期加深，铜价企稳反弹、黄金显著上行

Group 1: Macro Overview - The macro environment remained relatively calm last week, lacking significant economic data, but overall maintained a risk-on sentiment [2][6] - Federal Reserve officials' dovish comments and market expectations regarding Trump's nominations for Fed positions suggest a likelihood of interest rate cuts [2][6] - The confirmation of a meeting between Trump and Putin keeps hopes for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict alive [2][6] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices increased by 1.24% on COMEX, while silver rose by 3.79% [4] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts, influenced by Trump's nominations, have supported precious metal prices [7][21] - The announcement of tariffs on imported gold bars has led to increased uncertainty in gold supply, contributing to price fluctuations [7][21] Group 3: Copper Market Analysis - COMEX copper prices showed a slight increase, supported at the $4.3 level after previously retreating due to tariff expectations [6][8] - Domestic macro conditions remain favorable, with strong July export data and expectations for a positive PPI [8][51] - Copper consumption is not expected to face significant downside pressure, as inventory levels remain high but do not indicate a substantial drop in demand [9][51] Group 4: Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 130,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 170,000 ounces [34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.6 tons to 960 tons, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [40] - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold rose, suggesting a dominant bullish outlook in the market [40]