【周观点】7月第5周乘用车环比+5.0%，继续看好汽车板块

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads phase, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend and the dawn of intelligent driving technology. The recommendation is to increase the allocation weight of "dividend style" investments in the second half of 2025 [6][12]. Group 1: Weekly Review Summary - In the fifth week of July, the compulsory insurance for vehicles reached 462,000 units, with a week-on-week increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2% [11]. - The performance ranking of segmented automotive sectors this week is as follows: SW motorcycles and others (+9.6%) > SW automotive parts (+4.5%) > SW automobiles (+2.7%) > SW commercial passenger vehicles (+2.6%) > SW passenger vehicles (-0.7%) > SW commercial freight vehicles (-4.2%) [11][19]. - The top five stocks covered this week include Chunfeng Power, Xinquan Co., Xiaopeng Motors-W, Mingyang Technology, and Hengshuai Co. [11][25]. Group 2: Industry Core Changes - Xiaopeng's new P7 will debut on August 6, featuring design, intelligent cockpit, control range, and intelligent driving assistance, with an expected launch in August [5][11]. - The Li Auto i8 has undergone SKU adjustments and price reductions, standardizing to the max version and reducing prices by 10,000 yuan for max and 20,000 yuan for ultra [5][11]. - The new Wanjie M7 has been announced, adopting the latest family design language with a wheelbase of 3030mm, offering five/six-seat versions and EV/EREV energy types [5][11]. Group 3: Market Focus and Configuration - The A-share automotive market performed well this week, while the Hong Kong automotive sector lagged behind the broader market. The motorcycle segment performed the best [7][12]. - The recommendation is to increase the allocation weight of "dividend style" investments, focusing on buses (Yutong Bus), heavy trucks (China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A-H/Waichai Power), two-wheelers (Chunfeng Power/Lonxin General), and parts (Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Xinquan Co., Jifeng Co.) [12]. - For AI intelligent vehicles, the preference is for Hong Kong stocks (Xiaopeng Motors-W, Li Auto-W, Xiaomi Group-W) over A-shares (Seres, SAIC Group, BYD) [12]. Group 4: Sales and Forecasts - The total number of passenger vehicles insured this week was 462,000, with a week-on-week increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2%. New energy vehicles accounted for 245,000 units, with a penetration rate of 53.1% [47]. - The forecast for 2025 indicates a total retail sales volume of 2,369,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [48][49]. - The expected sales volume for heavy trucks in 2025 is 750,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [53].