AI泡沫何时破灭？美银Hartnett建议紧盯这个关键指标

Core Viewpoint - The core warning from Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett is that the true test of the AI bubble's potential collapse lies not in stock prices but in the credit spreads of technology companies. A widening spread would indicate unsustainable cash consumption from massive investments, signaling a potential market crash [1][3]. Group 1: AI Bubble and Market Dynamics - The current AI-driven bull market is characterized by significant capital expenditures, with a projected $2.9 trillion in AI-related capital spending by 2028 [5]. - Hartnett draws parallels to the 1999 internet bubble, noting that a widening credit spread among tech companies preceded the market crash during that period [7]. - The market rebound since April has been highly concentrated, with the "Magnificent Seven" tech companies contributing 80% of the S&P 500's returns, amplifying specific sector risks [9]. Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The impact of AI on the labor market is becoming evident, as the unemployment rate for U.S. college graduates surged from 4.0% in December 2023 to 8.1% [9]. - Investor sentiment is currently overly optimistic, with 60% expecting a "Goldilocks" scenario of falling interest rates and rising stock prices, while the probability of an economic "hard landing" has dropped to 5% or below [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Amid warnings about the AI bubble, Hartnett highlights the Chinese market as a favored investment opportunity, citing factors such as being overlooked, peak tariffs, consumption stimulus, and record trade surpluses [15]. - Hartnett maintains a bullish long-term outlook on gold, driven by inflationary pressures, geopolitical isolation, and expectations of central banks reassessing gold reserves to alleviate debt burdens [15].