CATL(SZ:300750) 证券时报·2025-08-11 15:29Core Viewpoint - The suspension of the Ningde Times' Jiangxiawo mica mine has led to a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures, with the main contract reaching a price of 81,000 yuan/ton, marking an 8% rise and a new six-month high [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The Jiangxiawo mica mine, which has a substantial production capacity, is expected to create a supply gap of several thousand tons per month, leading to a potential shortage of lithium carbonate in the third quarter [1][3]. - Following the news of the mine's suspension, the market experienced a surge in sentiment, with futures for polysilicon and industrial silicon also rising significantly, indicating a broader market impact [1][10]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply situation is exacerbated by the suspension of the Jiangxiawo mine, which is projected to reduce lithium carbonate supply by over 20,000 tons, coinciding with a seasonal increase in demand from the power battery and energy storage sectors [7][8]. - The lithium carbonate spot prices are reported at 71,900 yuan/ton for battery-grade and 69,800 yuan/ton for industrial-grade, reflecting the tightening supply conditions [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the lithium carbonate market will see prices rise to a range of 84,000 to 90,000 yuan/ton in the near term due to the combination of reduced supply and increasing demand [7][8]. - The long-term outlook suggests that while there is significant potential for lithium resource supply, the price increase may face pressure from the availability of new lithium mining projects [7].