中金：美国经济面临“类滞胀”

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. economy is entering a "high for longer" era characterized by sustained high tariffs and interest rates, leading to "stagflation-like" pressures that suppress overall demand and economic growth [3][4]. Group 1: Stagnation Factors - The combination of high tariffs and high interest rates is significantly suppressing demand in the U.S. economy. The effective average tariff rate is projected to rise from 17.3% to 20.5%, indicating a long-term institutionalization of tariff policies [6][11]. - Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can either reduce corporate profits or diminish consumer purchasing power, ultimately leading to suppressed total demand [6][7]. - Recent data shows a significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue, reaching $27 billion in June, indicating that the impact of tariffs is becoming more pronounced [7][9]. - High interest rates, maintained by the Federal Reserve due to inflation concerns, are particularly detrimental to interest-sensitive sectors like real estate, which has seen negative growth in investment since Q1 [11][15]. - The U.S. GDP data indicates a slowdown in domestic private sector final sales, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, marking the third consecutive quarter of deceleration [15][16]. Group 2: Inflationary Pressures - Despite many companies absorbing tariff costs to maintain market share, the institutionalization of tariffs may lead to increased prices for consumers as companies face squeezed profit margins [29][31]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June shows rising prices in certain goods, indicating that tariff costs are beginning to affect retail prices [31][33]. - Predictions suggest that retail automobile prices may rise by 4% to 8% by the end of the year, contributing to upward pressure on core inflation [33][34]. Group 3: AI as a Counterbalancing Factor - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is driving increased capital expenditure in sectors such as data centers, chip manufacturing, and software development, partially offsetting the negative impacts of high tariffs and interest rates [19][20]. - Since the release of ChatGPT, spending on data center construction has surged, nearing levels of office building expenditures, with a 13.9% year-on-year increase in investments related to AI [19][21]. - However, AI's growth may also lead to structural challenges, such as job displacement for less skilled workers, contributing to a rising unemployment rate among younger demographics [25][27]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Uncertainty - The Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma with simultaneous economic slowdown and persistent inflation, leading to internal divisions among officials regarding interest rate decisions [36][39]. - Recent statements from various Federal Reserve officials reflect a lack of consensus on whether to lower rates or maintain them, increasing uncertainty in monetary policy and market volatility [36][39].