中金 | AI进化论（12）：高端PCB需求跃迁，算力基座价值重构

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI computing power is driving a significant increase in both volume and price in the PCB market, with expectations for the AI PCB market to reach $5.6 billion in 2025 and $10 billion in 2026 [2][8]. Demand Side - AI-driven computing infrastructure and smart device innovations are expected to boost the global PCB market value to $73.57 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [5][7]. - The demand for AI servers and GPUs/ASICs is projected to provide new momentum for long-term growth in the PCB market, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% from 2025 to 2029, reaching $94.7 billion by 2029 [5][8]. - The penetration rate of AI servers is expected to reach 15% by 2026, with shipments projected to exceed 2.1 million units [7]. Supply Side - PCB manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion, with a total investment of approximately 32 billion yuan announced by seven listed companies for PCB capacity expansion [2][35]. - Despite the acceleration in capacity expansion, the efficiency of capacity release is expected to lag behind the growth rate of AI demand, leading to a sustained supply-demand gap in the medium term [2][35]. Technological Innovations - Continuous iterations in technology are anticipated, with a focus on reducing dielectric constant (dk) and dielectric loss (df) to overcome transmission bottlenecks [4][52]. - The integration of advanced materials and new processes, such as CoWoP and substrate-like PCBs, is expected to drive further growth in the PCB market [4][52]. Market Dynamics - The global PCB market is heavily concentrated in Asia, with China leading in market share. The Asian PCB market is projected to reach $67.9 billion in 2024, accounting for 93.1% of the global market [35][38]. - The demand for high-layer and HDI PCBs is increasing due to the requirements of AI servers, which typically have more than 20 layers and require ultra-low loss materials [35][42]. CCL Market - The CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) market is also experiencing high demand, with the global market expected to reach $15.08 billion in 2024. Major suppliers include companies like Kingboard and Shengyi Technology [37][40]. - The leading CCL manufacturers are expanding their production capacity to meet the rising demand driven by AI infrastructure [40][41].