【高端制造】7月工程机械销量表现亮眼，雅下水电工程有望带动需求提升——工程机械行业2025年7月月报（黄帅斌/陈佳宁/夏天宇）

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator sales in July 2025 showed strong performance, indicating a positive trend in the engineering machinery sector driven by equipment replacement and government support for infrastructure projects [4][5][6]. Group 1: Domestic Excavator Sales - In July 2025, total excavator sales (including exports) reached 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, with domestic sales at 7,306 units, up 17.2% [4]. - From January to July 2025, total excavator sales amounted to 137,658 units, reflecting a 17.8% year-on-year growth, while domestic sales were 72,943 units, increasing by 22.3% [4]. - The ongoing replacement cycle of engineering machinery, with a typical lifespan of 8-10 years, is expected to drive a compound growth rate of around 30% in replacement demand for excavators in the coming years [4]. Group 2: Government Policy Support - The 2025 government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, to support key projects and infrastructure investments [5][6]. - The report emphasized the continuation of urban infrastructure investments, particularly in areas such as urban renewal, flood control systems, and digital infrastructure, which will sustain demand for engineering machinery [6]. Group 3: Export Performance - In July 2025, excavator exports reached 9,832 units, marking a 31.9% year-on-year increase, with total exports from January to July at 64,715 units, up 13.0% [7]. - The engineering machinery export sector is expected to benefit from increased demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, despite facing challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [7]. Group 4: Electric Machinery Trends - In July 2025, electric loader sales surged to 2,391 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 81.5%, with an electricization rate of 26.6%, up 10.8 percentage points [8]. - From January to July 2025, electric loader sales totaled 16,344 units, reflecting a 154.1% year-on-year growth, with an electricization rate of 22.2%, an increase of 13.4 percentage points [8]. - The government’s push for green transformation and energy efficiency is expected to accelerate the electrification of engineering machinery, enhancing revenue and profit for manufacturers [8]. Group 5: Major Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is anticipated to significantly boost demand for engineering machinery [9]. - The project is expected to require around 120 to 180 billion yuan worth of machinery, with a focus on large excavators, tunnel boring machines, and concrete machinery due to its scale and environmental considerations [9].