“反内卷”相关品种延续强势：申万期货早间评论-20250812

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of "anti-involution" related products, particularly in the context of lithium carbonate prices driven by mining permit delays from Ningde Times, and the upcoming deadline for the suspension of tariffs between China and the US [1][2]. Key Products Lithium Carbonate - The supply side of lithium carbonate is currently disrupted due to mining permit delays, with expectations of price increases. Chile is projected to export 28,800 tons of lithium salt in July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year. The lithium carbonate export volume is expected to reach 21,000 tons, accounting for 73% of total exports [2][24]. - Weekly production has decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, with an anticipated supply increase of 3% to 84,200 tons in August. The consumption of lithium in two major cathode materials is expected to rise by 8% to 86,000 tons [2][24]. - Social inventory has seen its first decline since the end of May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons. The short-term focus remains on warehouse inventory, especially as overseas mining financial reports are set to be released [2][24]. Double Coke - The double coke market continues to show strength, with total positions in coking coal reaching a new high of 970,000 lots. The supply of coking coal is tightening, and there are expectations of production limits from steel mills, which may support prices in the short term [3][25]. Protein Meal - The protein meal market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with the USDA reporting a good soybean crop. The soybean good rate is at 69%, matching market expectations, while the flowering rate is at 85% [3][26]. Despite a good crop outlook, concerns over export demand are keeping prices under pressure [3][26]. Major News International News - President Trump announced the federal control of the Washington D.C. police department and the deployment of the National Guard to restore order and public safety [4]. Domestic News - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to questions regarding the extension of tariff suspensions and the easing of export controls on high-bandwidth memory chips, emphasizing a stance against politicizing technology and trade issues [5]. Industry News - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have reached 74,500 yuan per ton, marking a four-month high. Ningde Times confirmed the suspension of mining operations in the Yichun area due to the expiration of its mining permit on August 9, and is working to renew the permit [6].