美元的“超额特权”还能维持多久？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential decline of the US dollar's dominance as a global reserve currency, drawing parallels to historical events that reshaped the financial landscape, particularly during the Nixon Shock and the Plaza Accord [2][9]. Economic Pressures - The current economic pressures in the US mirror those of the 1970s and 1980s, characterized by large fiscal deficits, expanding debt, and increasing trade deficits, compounded by frequent sanctions that have led to a new level of "abuse" of the dollar [3][4]. Trade Policies - Trump's administration has implemented tariffs on countries like China and the EU to reduce trade deficits, which has inadvertently weakened other nations' motivations to stabilize their currencies against the dollar, thus harming global trade liquidity and diminishing dollar demand [3][4]. Trust in Dollar Assets - Sanctions and asset freezes against countries such as Russia and Iran have eroded trust in holding dollar-denominated assets, raising concerns among nations like China, which holds approximately $2 trillion in dollar reserves, about the safety of these assets [4][5]. Policy Implications - Proposals like the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which suggest converting foreign-held US debt into non-tradable bonds, could undermine trust in dollar assets, risking a significant shift in global currency reserves away from the dollar [4][5]. Inflation and Interest Rates - The US government's tax cuts and deficit spending have led to inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, while presidential interference in the Fed's independence could further erode confidence in the dollar [4][5]. Decline of Dollar's Reserve Status - According to IMF data, the dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves has declined from approximately 66% in 2015 to about 57% by 2025, indicating a shift towards other currencies [7][8]. Future Outlook - The dollar's dominance is weakening, and the decline in the dollar index reflects diminishing market confidence. The emergence of a multipolar currency system, with increased internationalization of the yuan and innovations in EU finance, poses a threat to the dollar's status [9]. Historical Context - The article draws historical parallels, suggesting that the current situation may lead to a restructuring of the dollar's role in the global financial system, similar to past events that preceded significant shifts in monetary power [9].