Cambricon(SH:688256) 券商中国·2025-08-12 04:57Core Viewpoint - The market is eagerly anticipating the release of DeepSeek-R2, with a projected window between August 15 and August 30, 2025, following the recent launch of ChatGPT-5, which has intensified competitive pressure [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Semiconductor stocks surged on August 12, with notable increases such as Cambricon rising nearly 16% and Shanghai Huanjing hitting a 20% limit up [1]. - The stock of Meiri Interactive, a leading player in the DeepSeek concept, saw a significant rise of 12% in early trading, indicating that the market is pricing in the rumors surrounding DeepSeek-R2 [5]. - The anticipation of DeepSeek-R2 has led to a collective rally in AI concept stocks, reflecting heightened investor interest [1][5]. Group 2: DeepSeek-R2 Release Speculations - Initial plans for DeepSeek-R2 indicated a release in May 2025, but this was delayed due to technical progress and market competition, with the latest rumors suggesting a release in mid-August 2025 [1][3]. - A recent outage of DeepSeek services, attributed to peak traffic, has raised concerns but also speculation that the upcoming release may lead to increased user testing and server load [7]. Group 3: Cambricon Developments - Cambricon's stock also experienced a significant rise, attributed to both the DeepSeek-R2 rumors and positive developments regarding its fundraising efforts, which have been adjusted to reduce share dilution [9][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong demand for AI chips, with projections indicating a potential revenue of 30 to 40 billion yuan by 2026 [11]. - The overall semiconductor market is projected to reach a size of 1 trillion dollars by 2030, driven by AI demand, with HPC/AI terminal markets expected to capture 45% of the semiconductor market share [12].