宋雪涛：谁是市场的增量资金？

Core Viewpoint - The current market rally is driven by the rising sentiment among retail investors and the return of foreign capital, with insurance funds providing long-term support. The sustainability of this trend depends on the progress of household financial management migration and the global liquidity environment under a weak dollar [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In July, the A-share market experienced a "bottom-up" bull market atmosphere, with the ChiNext Index rising over 8% for the month and daily trading volumes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets frequently exceeding 1.5 trillion [4]. - The improvement in market sentiment is attributed to the easing of Sino-U.S. relations and tariff issues, along with the maturation of TACO trading and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have provided support for dollar liquidity [4]. Group 2: Types of Market Participants National Team - The central government’s capital, represented by Central Huijin Investment, has been absent from the market, with net outflows from broad-based ETFs since May, while industry-specific ETFs saw sustained inflows in July [5]. Institutions - Institutional "super large orders" have seen continuous net outflows since July, indicating limited motivation for public funds to increase positions. The average daily trading volume in key sectors like technology, finance, and consumption has been rising [5][6]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, the equity position of actively managed public funds in A-shares is at 71.4%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points over the past year, with total net assets at 3.4 trillion, the lowest in 20 quarters [5]. Retail Investors - Retail investors have emerged as the main source of incremental funds during the July bull market, with new account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reaching 1.96 million, above the 60th percentile level over the past three years [7]. - The net inflow of small orders (below 40,000 yuan) increased by 39% month-on-month in July, and the total trading volume on the A-share "Dragon and Tiger List" rose by 7.5% compared to June [7][8]. Foreign Capital - Foreign capital has shown signs of recovery, with average daily trading volume of northbound funds increasing by 36.3% in July compared to June, marking the first time since the "924 market" that both daily trading volume and market share have risen simultaneously [8][9]. - The net inflow of ETFs focused on investing in China reached $199 million in the past month, surpassing the total for the previous three months and accounting for 47% of last year's total net inflow [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The continuation of the A-share and H-share market rally will depend on the progress of household financial management migration and the global liquidity released by a weak dollar [9].