读研报 | 存款搬家，长期逻辑和当下关注

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around "deposit migration" is gaining traction as deposit interest rates have entered the "1 era," leading to a decline in deposit attractiveness, while the stock market's profitability is becoming more evident, suggesting a potential shift of deposits into A-shares as new capital [2][3]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - The growth rate of resident deposits has slowed, currently around 10%, down from an average of 14% between 2019-2023 and significantly lower than the 18% growth seen at the end of 2022 and early 2023 [2]. - New RMB deposits from residents reached approximately 18 trillion yuan in 2022, projected to drop to around 14 trillion yuan in 2024 and 10.8 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, which is below the historical peak of 12 trillion yuan for the same period [2]. - The proportion of new RMB deposits to GDP is expected to be 10.6% for the entire year of 2024 and 16.3% for the first half of 2025, compared to historical peaks of 14.5% in 2022 and 19.6% in the first half of 2023 [2]. Group 2: Deposit Migration Characteristics - Reports indicate that the phenomenon of deposit migration is not yet significant, with personal deposit growth still exceeding M2, reflecting a "regularization" characteristic [3]. - The outflow of corporate deposits is driving the "deposit migration" phenomenon, while personal deposits are declining steadily but without clear signs of migration [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The "scissors difference" between corporate and resident deposits is being closely monitored, as it serves as a leading indicator for economic activity, with upward adjustments noted since September 2024 [5]. - A higher corporate deposit growth compared to residents suggests improved investment and consumption willingness among residents, while a decline indicates reduced spending and investment [5]. Group 4: Potential for Reallocation - There is a possibility of reallocation of funds into the stock market, driven by the strong desire for returns from excess savings, with an estimated 4.6 trillion yuan of "excess savings" maturing between 2025-2026 [9]. - If this excess savings is fully allocated to other assets, it could bring approximately 700 billion yuan in incremental funds to various asset classes, including stocks [9]. - Historical data shows that the ratio of resident deposits to total stock market value remains high, indicating potential for further capital inflow into the stock market [9]. Group 5: Institutional Asset Management - Institutions like wealth management subsidiaries and insurance companies are expected to shift their asset allocations from bonds to stocks due to limited downward space for bond yields [11]. - The ongoing decline in deposit rates is likely to drive the trend of deposit migration, although it is essential to differentiate between long-term trends and short-term market fluctuations [11].