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国泰海通|海外策略:财报季全球盈利预期齐上修
国泰海通证券研究·2025-08-12 14:20

Market Performance - Global markets rebounded last week, with MSCI Global up by 2.3%, MSCI Developed up by 2.4%, and MSCI Emerging up by 1.8% [1] - The Hong Kong cyclical sector led the gains, while US tech and consumer discretionary sectors performed well, and European financials and real estate showed strong performance [1] - US 10Y Treasury yields increased, and oil prices saw significant gains [1] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in US and European markets, while Japanese and Korean markets saw a decrease [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong decreased but remained at historical highs, while US investor sentiment increased and also reached historical highs [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while Japanese market volatility increased [1] - Overall valuations in developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations were revised upward across major markets, with Japanese stocks showing the best performance in 2025 EPS expectations [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 2192 to 2194 [2] - US S&P 500 Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 267 to 268 [2] - European STOXX 50 Index 2025 EPS expectation remained unchanged at 335 [2] Economic Expectations - China's economic expectations were marginally revised upward, influenced by positive policy sentiments and overseas technology developments [2] - The US and European economic surprise indices declined, affected by various geopolitical and economic factors [2] Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations remained stable, with a slight increase in expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts following the non-farm payroll data [3] - As of August 8, market expectations indicated a 2.3 rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, a decrease from the previous week [3] - There was a net inflow into Hong Kong stocks from the southbound trading, while foreign capital outflow from Hong Kong stocks was noted [3]